CITY OF ARVADA DATA INTELLIGENCE PROPOSAL

eImpact Report | March 2018



SUMMARY: OUTCOMES & OBJECTIVES

  • The Arvada Economic Development Association is the leading force behind planning and supporting the economic growth of the city.
  • AEDA seeks greater visibility and insight into data that addresses current and future needs of the community.
  • This data intelligence will help AEDA strategically guide policy planning and decision making, aligned to the community vision.

eImpact will help Arvada respond to key areas of concern, such as:

How is Arvada doing compared to others?

Benchmarks to peer communities and state

Are we meeting our targets?

Understand how things are changing in real-time

What can we do to change outcomes?

Aligned to community vision

PARALLEL EXAMPLE

Energy Model vs. Community Model

INTRO: ENERGY MODEL vs. COMMUNITY MODEL

The eImpact team has significant background in energy data and analytics, a great parallel example to economic data forecasting. In this work, energy models are used routinely to help decision-makers understand the benefits and ROI of energy retrofit projects. This is a great parallel to the types of interventions an economic developer and planner would deploy to alter the baseline forecast in the community. Below is a side-by-side comparison between these two worlds.

ENERGY MODELCOMMUNITY MODEL
GOALOptimize ROIRealize Community Vision
UNITS OF MEASUREkWh, BTUs, Heat Gain/LossRetail, Industrial, Office, Housing
METHODSRegression Analysis and Physics-based ModelRegression Analysis and Econometrics
INTERVENTIONSEnergy Conservation Measure Ryan + Policy
EXTERNAL FACTORSWeather, Occupancy

Economy, Resources

In both cases, the key benefit in taking this approach is to gain more visibility into our plans and their expected results, and to calibrate and refine our model through tracking of actual data. Absent this, we are truly flying blind.



OUR SUGGESTED APPROACH

What It Will Take To Implement

SCOPE: What It Will Take

AEDA seeks greater visibility and insight into data that addresses current and future needs of the community. This will require understanding both the baseline and future forecasts of key data points. Timely data is key, as stale reports are a rearview mirror.

  1. Baseline Data Dashboard  
    1. Inputs:
      • Retail: total retail sales, retail square footage, retail square footage per person, retail by acre
      • Office: square footage, square footage by type of industry, total number of employees, employees by wage, employees by industry
      • Industrial: same as office.
      • Housing: by type (single family, town home, multifamily), by price point, housing density, # in household
      • Economic Data for Arvada: employment by industry, wages, firms etc.
    2. Format dashboard
    3. Set up data feeds
  2. Forecast Data Analysis 
    1. Load data tables from Candelas Market Study
    2. Identify important trends over next 5 year period (see chart below)
    3. Set up Baseline vs. Forecast comparisons
  3. Community Profile
    1. Produce Community Profile report with similar data inputs as current Arvada document.
  4. Ongoing Data Collection and Calibration
    1. Real-time environment for updating data
    2. Feed each period's new data into model comparison
    3. Track changes and update community
    4. Repeat


From the Candelas report that AEDA shared with eImpact, we found the following trend curious. This is just one quick example of the kinds of insights possible. 

  • Manufacturing is forecasted to decline precipitously over during a phase of growth and gradual decline in employment overall.

What are the reasons for this prediction? Can the course be changed? Should it?

These are the types of questions eImpact will be able to help AEDA answer.

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (% Change)
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MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT (% Change)
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PROPOSAL TERMS

Pricing and Timeline

PROPOSAL TERMS: 


  1. Total Fee: $19,800 
    1. Components:
      • eImpact Report license
      • Professional services
      • Third party data fees
      • Training and Support
      • Optional: remove Community Vision report, $3,700 reduction
    2. Process and timeline:
      • On-boarding and dashboard set-up (2-3 weeks)
      • Analyze forecast and create comparison reports (2 weeks)
      • Create Community Profile (1-2 days)
      • Training (1 day, on-site in Arvada)
      • Support (Ongoing via phone/email)
      • Total Timeline: 6-7 weeks
  2. Collaboration
    1. Peer Working Group: we invite Arvada to join our Peer Working Group - a combination virtual and in-person collection of cities using data to help drive desired economic outcomes.
      • Quarterly online / telephone participation
      • Annual meeting at IEDC Annual Conference (9/30 - 10/3 in Atlanta)
      • Share best practices, pain points






EXAMPLE REPORT

Budget Balancing Forecast Model

The report example at right is a relevant example of eImpact client work. The goal of this interactive report was to help the Oregon Business Council engage stakeholders on the various policy levers impacting the state budget.